The theory that the Albanese Government needs to implement interest rate cuts before the next election is more of a gamble than pundits think, writes Stephen Koukoulas.
THERE IS A growing and frankly overpopulated bandwagon of soothsayers and “analysts” who reckon that the Federal Labor Government needs the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates between now and the next election, due by May 2025, to win.
It’s “the vibe”.
This monetary policy mantra has intuitive appeal — low interest rates will make those voters with a mortgage and small business debt better off financially which should make them more inclined to vote for the incumbent.
Maybe.
What does history tell us?
Looking at the last ten federal elections in Australia since 1996, this theory has little substance.
In simple terms, election results over the past three decades reveal there is no obvious or consistent link between changes in …